With Myanmar on the cusp of their first elections since the 2021 Military Coup, I thought it would be a good opportunity to provide a brief recent history on Myanmar. While I assume most people reading this blog have some sense of where Myanmar is, whenever I am back home and tell people where I currently live, the vast majority of Americans have absolutely no clue where Myanmar is located, and often have never heard of it. I would also like to take the opportunity to note that this post (and all my posts) in no way represent the thoughts and opinions of U.S. Government. I have nothing but respect for Myanmar, have loved my time here, and hope these elections will be the start of better things for this beautiful country.
In February 2021, Myanmar’s decade-long transition toward partial civilian rule came to an abrupt end when the military, led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. The coup followed the November 2020 general election, in which Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won a landslide victory. The military, alleging widespread electoral fraud without providing substantiated evidence, declared a state of emergency and detained senior government leaders.
In the weeks that followed, widespread protests erupted across the country. Citizens participated in mass demonstrations, labor strikes, and acts of civil disobedience. Protesters banged pots and pans, displayed the three-finger salute, and organized online campaigns against military rule. The movement quickly grew into one of the largest nationwide uprisings in Myanmar’s modern history. The military responded with increasing force, using live ammunition, arbitrary arrests, and widespread intimidation to quell dissent.
As the crackdown intensified, peaceful demonstrations gave way to armed resistance. Many civilians joined newly formed militias known as People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), which operated alongside long-standing ethnic armed organizations that had fought the central government for decades. By late 2021, these groups had begun coordinated attacks against the Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s armed forces), marking the start of a broad, multi-front civil conflict.
By 2023, the conflict had spread across much of the country. The military retained control over the capital, Naypyidaw, and several major cities (including where I live in Yangon), but large portions of the countryside, particularly in Chin, Karen, Kachin, and Shan states (see map above for reference) were under the control of local resistance groups or ethnic organizations. The opposition National Unity Government (NUG), composed largely of deposed lawmakers and activists, operated in exile and claimed to represent the legitimate civilian government.
The humanitarian consequences have been severe. Entire towns and villages have been destroyed in fighting, with widespread reports of airstrikes, arson, and civilian casualties. Millions have been displaced internally or have fled across borders into Thailand, India, and Bangladesh. Public services such as schools and hospitals have collapsed in many areas. Economic conditions have also deteriorated sharply: inflation remains high, the national currency has weakened, and poverty levels have risen dramatically.
International responses have been mixed. Western governments have imposed targeted sanctions on military leaders and state-owned enterprises, while neighboring countries such as China, Thailand, and India have maintained varying degrees of engagement with the junta for strategic and economic reasons. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has attempted mediation through its “Five-Point Consensus,” but implementation has stalled due to continued violence and lack of cooperation from the military government.
Myanmar remains one of Southeast Asia’s most ethnically diverse nations, home to more than 130 officially recognized groups. Many of these regions, particularly along the country’s mountainous borders, have long maintained varying degrees of autonomy through ethnic armed organizations. Today, these areas operate largely outside central control, contributing to a highly fragmented territorial and political landscape.
This leads us into the elections starting later this week and ending in January. In one view, the vote is presented by the ruling military-led administration as a return to civilian governance and a restoration of constitutional norms. At the same time, international observers, human-rights organizations, and opposition groups widely regard the process as deeply flawed. They point to severe restrictions on political participation, the banning or dissolution of major parties, the imposition of laws favoring military-backed parties, and the ongoing conflict that leaves large parts of the country outside government control and unable to vote.
Ultimately, the election could serve as a turning point for Myanmar’s political future, either as an opportunity for renewed legitimacy and political opening, or as a mechanism to entrench the military’s dominance under a different façade. The outcome will likely shape not just the composition of the legislature, but also the rules governing power, the degree of ethnic and regional participation, and the space for dissent and reform. Time will be the ultimate judge. -Nick
